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A Basic Judgment over the Current Economic Situati
A Basic Judgment over the Current Economic Situation
Since the beginning of this year, the national economy has maintained a momentum of steady growth. Some positive changes have occurred to the economic operation, laying a foundation for the growth of the whole year. At present, the national economy has the ability to keep a sustained and steady growth.
1. The residents’ expectations tend to be stable and the consumer demand is growing steadily. In the middle and latter part of the 1990s, the state took measures to divert laid-off workers in the state-owned enterprises, reform the government institutions, push forward the housing commercialization and reform medical care, pension and education systems. Necessary as they are, these reforms have had negative impact on the residents’ expectations and short-term consumer demand. After active adjustment in recent years, the comprehensive effect of reform has gradually become obvious – residents’ expectations have gradually become stabilized and consumer demand has grown fairly high. From January to May, the total volume of retail sales saw a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. During the “golden week” in May, the number of tourists surpassed 70 million person/times. The related industries also witnessed a fairly fast growth.
2. The prices grow slightly, and the pressure of market surplus has been alleviated. The total residents’ consumption level is up by 1.7% compared with that of May last year. From January to May, it is up by 1.1%. Although most of the products are in over supply, and the slight growth of prices is caused by the price rise in education, housing, public services, petroleum, petrochemicals and steel, the main price index is kept positive. This indicates that deflation is being eased and surplus pressure alleviated.
3. Fixed asset investment increases fairly fast, and housing, car and other pillar industries keep a strong growth momentum in investment and sales. From January to May, total fixed asset investment increased by 17.6% with an eight-percentage-point higher over the same period of last year. The investment in housing renovation and real estate grew by 26.7% and 26.5% respectively. The growth scope of investment and marketing in the housing, car and other pillar industries reached a rather high level. In the first quarter, the investment in housing completion grew by 28.6%, accounting for 68.1% of the real estate investment and representing a one-percentage-point higher over the last year. The commodity housing space sold and sales respectively grew by 3.14% and 48.9%, of which, the sales from individual purchases increased by 56.9%, accounting for 83.2%. In April, car production grew by 18.2% and sales by 38.3%. In large cities, such as Beijing, individuals bought more than 80% of the cars sales.
4. The quality and result of economic operation have been raised. From January to May, aggregative index of economic returns of industrial enterprises is 116.5, eight percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year and 2.3 points higher than that in the first four months. The amount of loss of enterprises in red declined by 10.4% against the same period last year. In the first four months, the state-owned and state-controlled enterprises realized an increase of 39.1% in profit after the deficit was deducted. The 12,700 state-owned and state-controlled large and medium-sized enterprises earned 66.09
